August 2004
Applied Futurism: Putting Trends to Work Today
By Susan J. Ellis
Responses for this topic
Do you watch
the national and world news and shake your head? Do you wonder if
global and regional developments will end up affecting the volunteer
program you run? You should. Volunteering never occurs in a vacuum
and so all the social, economic and cultural trends affecting many
citizens will clearly affect many volunteers.
Sometimes
current events provide opportunities to grab what's new or “hot”; other times they will set off warning bells to help
you avoid negative impact. You
can strengthen your volunteer program by becoming
an effective forecaster, making sure you seize great trends while
sidestepping the bad.
Why
Is Forecasting Necessary?
First,
keep in mind that futurists refer to what's-to-come in plural terms.
They talk about futures, since at any given
time there are an infinite number of paths we can take. In fact, they
consider three different types of futures:
-
Possible futures,
which include anything and everything within the laws of the universe
as known today, from utopian scenarios to hellish nightmares.
-
Probable futures,
which are a central slice of possible futures but represent a reasonable
extrapolation of what is happening today into coming years – if
major changes (catastrophes, miracles) do not occur.
- Preferable
futures, which are clearly subjective,
as seen by the eye of the beholder.
Volunteering
is all about preferable futures, since people only volunteer for the
causes they believe must be supported for a positive outcome. But
recognize that “preferable” is an opinion, so do some reality checking
to make sure that your organization and the volunteers who work within
it envision the same ends. For example, the enormous changes in American
health care in the last decade have led to hospitals being very different
places than when many long-time volunteers signed up, with even more
changes predicted. If you took
a poll of the priorities of hospital administrators today and compared
their responses to those of volunteers asked the same question, do
you think the two groups would agree? What do you think new applicants
for hospital volunteer positions envision when they project health
care into the next decade?
On
a practical level, this crystal ball gazing matters more than we may
credit. If organization management (both paid administrators and the
volunteer board) and the frontline paid and volunteer staff dream
of futures that are not in sync, conflict is inevitable in such areas
as budgeting, policy making, work design, marketing, evaluation, and
recognition. Differences in vision between the officers and members
of all-volunteer associations will similarly lead to tension.
The
other practical reason that futurism is necessary for volunteerism
practitioners is that it can be applied to volunteer program development.
The more you know about what concerns people publicly and personally,
the more effectively you can craft your recruitment messages. The
more accurately you can recognize new client needs and surmise the
services your organization will start offering to clients, the better
you will be in creating volunteer assignments on the cutting edge – proactively meeting those needs rather than reacting after-the-fact.
A volunteer program that leads its agency into the best service provision
is far more essential to mission than a program that waits to be dragged
in new directions.
Becoming
a Futurist
The
first step in forecasting – and then taking action on – trends is
to notice them! This means paying attention to the news and to commentaries
on the news. It includes seeing recurring themes in fictional t.v.
shows and movies, too. Thirty years ago all sit-coms concerned nuclear
families of mother/father/sons/daughters. Today sit-coms offer mix-and-match
families of single divorced parents, single never-married parents,
couples without children, blended multiple married families, various
sexual orientations, etc. If your organization serves children, for
example, what do you, your colleagues, and volunteers picture as “family” and how does that mesh with what the children receiving services think?
Living
in society with your eyes open, then, is a good first step to recognizing
trends. But it takes conscious attention. Broaden your reading to
include both the editorial and the op-ed pages of the newspaper. Skim
through magazines geared to various audiences (teenagers, different
professions, specific ethnic groups) and spot check what issues seem
to be percolating (this is a great way to find value in the odd publications
lying around doctors' offices and hair salons!). Attend a Chamber
of Commerce meeting or a current events forum at a university or library.
As you identify trends you want to follow, recruit volunteers to help
you learn more about them, including surfing the Web for more facts
and opinions.
Once
you feel in-the-know about trends, enlist help in analyzing the issues
from different perspectives. Once or twice a year, convene a Trends
Think Tank in which you invite volunteers and staff to discuss social,
economic and cultural issues they feel are in flux and to consider
how any of these might impact your organization. Ask volunteers to
clip articles or refer you to useful Web sites whenever something
catches their eye as a trend alert.
It's
very important to look beyond the “first wave” of anticipated outcomes
of any trend. Something that seems quite negative may, after the first
turmoil fades, end up more positive in the long run. In the same way,
something that looks wonderful at first glance may evolve more problems
over time. A good strategy is to make yourself (and your Think Tank)
identify both positive and negative possible outcomes for any trend,
even if one list is longer than the other. Know yourself, too. If
you tend to be an optimist or a pessimist, force yourself to see another
side of the issue – or get help doing so.
Finally,
recruit expert volunteers as “advisors on the future.” A wealth of
knowledge is available in every community and someone does not have
to work on site as a volunteer to provide insight to you and key decision-makers.
As volunteer program manager, you can ask all sorts of people to give
a few hours a year to a meeting, a phone call, or a long e-mail to
answer to specific questions from their trained perspectives. Such
advisors can be political figures, funders, media reporters, university
faculty, or any type of civic leader. Here are sample questions you
might pose:
-
Given your area of expertise, what do you think
is the most critical trend that our organization ought to prepare
for in the next 3 years? The next 20 years?
-
Given your understanding of our client group,
what three issues do you feel will have the most impact on them,
and how, in the next five years?
-
Given your understanding of our local community,
what changes do you envision occurring here in the next 3 years?
The next 20 years?
These
types of questions should elicit raw data that your Think Tank can
then take and analyze from the perspective of your organization.
While
you're imagining the future, can you picture an organization that
looks to the volunteer services department for its visionary thinking?
That asks you to be on the strategic planning team? That uses the
unique ability of volunteers to respond quickly to new circumstances
by testing innovative projects through volunteer action? Wow.
How
do you keep informed about trends and issues?
How
do you apply what you learn from trends?
How
do you/could you help your organization develop future strategies?
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